Bullish Sentiment nears low

Coffee  has,  since November of 2016, lost nearly a third of its value.  At the same time the  long term trend in coffee remains down, as it has created a series of lower highs for years.

The Market Sentiment score ranges from 0 (most bearish) to 100 (most bullish), lower readings point, 25 or lower,  to a Panic market, while higher ones point to an euphoric (bubble) market.

Bullish sentiment toward coffee has declined along with the price over the past 6 months, to the 29% level.    In August 2016  the score ranged between 56 and 53%.

“The Art of Contrary Thinking” (1954) by Humphrey B. Neill concludes that “when everybody thinks alike, everybody is likely to be wrong.”

A market that sees such a low bullish consensus, if matched by a bottoming, stagnant, period is bound for a correction.

As point of comparison, the current sentiment level for the stock market is around 64, more than double coffee.

 

 

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